Re-Arranging the Window Dressing of "Managed Democracy"
Introduction:
The Putin/Medvedev leadership of Russia is about to sail into uncharted waters. The decade-long period of economic expansion is threatened by the global financial crisis and falling oil prices. This has not yet been reflected in political difficulties for President Medvedev, Prime Minister Putin and their party, United Russia, which has built up a hegemonic position over the last eight years. The Russian Central Bank has very large foreign reserves, which will provide a substantial cushion. Nevertheless, there have been significant political developments in recent weeks. President Medvedev used his State of the Nation address to announce plans for significant 'corrections' to Russia's electoral laws. Whilst these proposals include some democratic window-dressing, the overall thrust would be to increase the tenure of the president and the parliamentary position of the Kremlin's party, United Russia. Additional measures would give the Kremlin extra power to 'manage' the opposition.
Russia's foreign policy has been increasingly aggressive in recent years, with the war in Georgia in August 2008 intended to send a signal to the West that Russia's preferences can no longer be ignored in matters such as NATO expansion. Although some voices in the ruling elite raised concerns about the negative economic consequences of this confrontational approach, those who argued for Russia to take an isolationist approach seemed to have the upper hand. Despite the increased focus on economic matters in recent months due to the global economic crisis, President Medvedev's announcement on 5th November that an Iskander missile system will be deployed in Kaliningrad demonstrates that it is unlikely that Russia will take a more conciliatory approach in international affairs in the near future.