Elections but little uncertainty about the outcome
Overview:
In a normal democratic country the approach of parliamentary and presidential elections would cause a great deal of uncertainty about future policies. In Russia this is not the case. It is clear which party will dominate parliamentary elections in December. It has already been announced that Vladimir Putin will run (and therefore be elected) as President in March. These outcomes reflect a preference for stability over liberalisation. This may genuinely reflect the preferences of many Russian voters. Unfortunately, stability also means delaying the economic reforms needed if Russia is to be a worthy member of the BRICs. Otherwise, solid but unspectacular growth will see it lag behind its peers. A continuing dependency on the oil and gas sector will see it occasionally exposed to swings in commodity prices.