EBRD: Growth forecast revised up but greater divergence
Overview:
The EBRD has raised its forecast for economic growth this year in the transition countries from 3.3% to 3.7%. The forecast for 2011 is for growth of 4.0%. Behind this positive development there remain large differences in the pace of the recovery across and within regions. The recovery is most robust in the EE/Caucasus and Central Asia regions while it is at its weakest in SEE. The CEE/Baltic States region is also recovering modestly although CEE is strongly outperforming the Baltic States. Both Turkey and Russia are recording strong economic growth and have seen their growth forecasts upgraded. The same is true for the Slovak Republic, Poland and Ukraine. By contrast, positive economic growth in Bulgaria and Romania has not yet returned and both countries have had their 2010 forecasts downgraded.