EBRD: October Transition Countries Forecast
Overview:
The EBRD has upgraded its growth outlook for the Transition Countries in 2010 by 0.7 percentage points (to 4.2%) compared to its July outlook and by 0.2 percentage points (to 4.1%) for 2011. The growth outlook for all regions/large countries was upgraded for this year except for Russia where there was no change (growth is still seen at 4.0%). The biggest change was for Turkey which saw its outlook increased significantly from 5.9% to 8.0%. Most regions/large countries saw little change to their outlook for 2011 with exceptions being a more positive outlook for Turkey (5.0% rather than 4.0%) and for South Eastern Europe (1.6% rather than 1.2%). The economic recovery continues to face several headwinds such as fiscal tightening and a slow recovery in bank lending but is more broad-based than before.