EBRD: Regional growth forecast update
Overview:
The EBRD has issued an update to its growth forecasts for the Transition Economies (TE). The overall growth outlook is little changed relative to the October forecast. This forecast was already much more pessimistic with regards to the growth outlook than the IMF’s WEO issued a month before. The EBRD has upgraded its growth forecast for 2011 a bit and reduced the 2012 forecast slightly. Growth readings in Q3 2011 were generally strong. However, leading indicators suggest a significant softening in Q4. Real credit growth is weak and there is a net outflow of funds from the region. Some areas are much harder hit than others reflecting the fact that Europe is the epicentre of this crisis. Those countries most closely integrated with Europe via trade and financial links will suffer most in this downturn.