European Commission: Interim growth forecast
Overview:
The European Commission has released its Interim growth forecast for September. This points to a more positive near-term economic outlook for Europe. There are still reasons to be cautious, though, about the sustainability of the recovery underway. Stronger than expected Q2 q-o-q GDP numbers point to a slightly better outlook for the remainder of the year. However, this only offsets a weaker than forecast Q1. There is no change in the growth forecast at either the Euro zone or EU27 level for 2009, then, (both -4% y-o-y). Poland continues to be the strongest performer in the region and has had its 2009 growth forecast revised upwards significantly. Signs of economic recovery in Western Europe should ultimately feed through to Eastern Europe more generally with a small lag.