IMF: October World Economic Outlook Summary
Overview:
The IMF sees only minor adjustments to its growth forecasts in its latest WEO. The US outlook is downgraded and that for the Euro Area and Emerging Markets upgraded. The Fund sees global growth remaining at a solid 4% plus both this year and next even if some slowdown is anticipated in 2011. This forecast does not, then, foresee a double-dip recession. It does, though, emphasize how unbalanced and fragile the economic recovery is. While growth is strong in many Emerging Markets the Advanced Economies are struggling to recover from the imbalances built up in the pre-crisis years. The continuance of the rebound requires a shift from a reliance on temporary boosts to growth (i.e. inventory rebuilding, fiscal stimulus) to a more durable expansion of private consumption and fixed investment.