IMF: World Economic Outlook - October 2009
Overview:
The IMF has raised its forecast for world economic growth in 2010 in its October World Economic Outlook (WEO) to 3.1% from the 1.9% it predicted in the April WEO and the 2.5% it revised this to in its July interim update. This follows a likely 1.1% contraction in 2009. The Fund sees positive economic growth in H2 2009 although on the basis of loose fiscal and monetary policies and a turnaround in the inventory cycle. The pace of economic recovery further out will be modest, however, because all of the aforementioned factors are of temporary duration. A more sustained pick-up will require a recovery in investment and private consumption which is, as yet, far from evident. Emerging Europe will recover more slowly than other regions as it has to adjust gradually to a world of permanently lower capital inflows.