Lithuania: Positive economic growth in 2010?
Overview:
The Lithuanian economy underwent a severe contraction in 2009 along with the economies of the other two Baltic States. However, the final outcome of -15% y-o-y, though painful, was slightly less bad than the -18.5% y-o-y that had once been predicted. More importantly, towards the end of 2009 there were clear signs of a stabilisation in output with GDP expanding in Q3 and Q4 on a q-o-q, seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. Early data readings for 2010 show a continuation of this slightly more positive trend. The contraction in industrial output continues to abate and exports have recorded positive y-o-y growth. On the basis of this data, the Bank of Lithuania is now projecting a positive growth outcome for 2010 (0.5% y-o-y) and a return to stronger growth of 3.4% in 2011.