Slovenia: IMAD economic growth forecast unchanged
Overview:
Economic growth figures for H1 in Slovenia were extremely weak and, indeed, worse than expected. However, recent data readings have also suggested the first signs of economic stabilisation are underway. As a small and open economy Slovenia will benefit quickly from recent indications that global (and EU) growth and trade outlooks are starting to look more positive. Moreover, Slovenia’s strong fiscal position as it entered the global economic crisis allowed the authorities to undertake significant fiscal stimulus to try and soften the impact of the downturn. The combination of these factors means that economic growth is still expected to be -4% this year (and modestly positive next) despite a very poor H1. Net exports are likely to lead the recovery but won’t be able to stop a further rise in unemployment.